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• CONSENSUS 01-28-2015

  Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as ...

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• STATISTICS 01-20-2015

  Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or ...

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• SWISS CHEESE 01-15-2015

  Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, ...

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• MARKET COMMENTARY 01-13-2015

  A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In ...

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• WEIGHTY 01-08-2015

  Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it ...

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• SHIPPING 01-02-2015

  First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the ...

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• 4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE 01-01-2015

  Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of ...

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• GDP 12-23-2014

  Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP ...

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• TOO MANY WORDS 12-22-2014

  Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to ...

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• ENERGY PANIC 12-16-2014

  Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol' West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in ...

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• EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES 12-15-2014

  Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the ...

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• DEFLATION? NOT US 12-09-2014

  The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is ...

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• LABOR MARKET 12-05-2014

  Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on ...

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• PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS) 12-03-2014

  Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of ...

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• PETROPOLITICS 12-02-2014

  For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and ...

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• EM THOUGHTS...NOT THERE YET 11-25-2014

  Successful investing is frequently about balancing valuation with growth prospects. We would all love to invest in cheap assets with strong ...

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• JOBS 11-24-2014

  There's no doubt that the headline unemployment rate (5.8%) does not tell the full picture of the job market. Specifically, there have been three ...

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• PRESSURE BUILDING 11-20-2014

  Yes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. It's a concern, a problem, a ...

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• SPREADS 11-18-2014

  An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the ...

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• MONEY MATTERS 11-17-2014

  When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge ...

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• SELECTED FUN FACTS 11-14-2014

  Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest ...

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• "SPECIAL"? 11-13-2014

  The following item caught my eye on Bloomberg:Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System is scheduled to discuss a staff report requested at a ...

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• LOGISTICS 11-11-2014

  Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ...

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• HOW THE MIGHTY FALL 11-11-2014

  Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, ...

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