Latest Blog: Mismatch - 03/20/2023
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Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.
Revenue can be deferred (or accelerated), profits are easily manipulated, inventory gets adjusted: most data have to be scrutinized and dissected, and even then, can be misleading. But there are some statistics that just don’t lie, and the amount of goods hauled around the country is one of them. The reason is that no one in their right mind would haul goods from one place to another for the fun of it: real goods get moved around the country to generate real sales. It’s a pretty pure measure of true economic activity.
Trucking tonnage grew 3.5% in 2015, to an all-time high (see graph below). In the past week, we received some mixed signals about the economy’s strength, with weaker-than-expected numbers in retail sales and a decline in average wages. My guess, though, is that these are anomalies, noise, to use the technical term. As long as truckers are hauling more stuff, we can be sure the economy is growing. They are, and it is.PRINT THIS ARTICLE
US economic growth 10-14-2014
So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, ...READ MORE
In some respects, this is a golden age for labor. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9% from a high of 10% in ...READ MORE
Labor Market 12-05-2014
Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of ...READ MORE
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