Latest Blog: Beach Reading - 09/18/2023
-
-
CIO INSIGHTS
-
CIO INSIGHTS
-
BACK TO CIO INSIGHTS
BACK TO ARTICLES & INSIGHTS HOME
-
-
-
-
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
TRADE
Published: 05-07-2015The trade deficit ballooned in March to over $51 billion, $8.6 billion more than a year ago. Exports were up a little, but imports surged, up more than $17 billion from February, the biggest monthly rise in imports since 1992. Over the past year, imports are up 1% while exports are down more than 3%.
Some of the surge in imports can be attributed to the end of West Coast port strikes, which released a flood of imports (mostly cars and cell phones) into the US. While it makes sense that we should see a spike in imports, we should have also seen a jump in exports, but we didn’t, raising questions about the competitiveness of US products.
Why do we care? Well, one immediate impact will be seen in the 1st quarter GDP revision, from +0.2% to a negative number (probably around -0.5%). So the economy contracted in the 1st quarter, but another way of looking at the trade deficit is that it highlights the relative strength of the US economy: booming imports are indicative of strong demand for goods.
I still think the weakness in the 1st quarter will fade into modest growth for the rest of the year. As I emphasized in my quarterly letter (Funambulism), the biggest near-term hurdles to growth are supply-side—capital investments and labor force growth—not insufficient demand incentives. We’ll come back to this topic again, no doubt.
PRINT THIS ARTICLERELATED ARTICLES
-
Don't Blame Nature 05-22-2015
Commodity prices rise and fall; no great insight there. Which is why most of us, mostly, take the fluctuations in ...
READ BLOG POST -
LOVE 02-14-2017
It's probably no surprise to you that I see offering world-class investment advice as a valuable service for the ...
READ BLOG POST -
O Pais do Futuro 11-30-2015
Charles de Gaulle (photobelow)imperious, disdainful, utterly French (and venerated for it in France)noted 50 years ago ...
READ BLOG POST
-
-
We strive build portfolios of best-in-class investment managers across all asset classes. If you would like to be considered for our portfolios, please contact us using our manager inquiries form.
- MANAGER INQUIRIES
-
SUBSCRIBE TO ANGELES' INSIGHTS
Get the latest investment information and stay on top of market trends.
SUBSCRIBE -
CONTACT US
SANTA MONICA
429 SANTA MONICA BLVD,
SUITE 650
SANTA MONICA, CA 90401
310.393.6300
GET DIRECTIONS -
NEW YORK
375 PARK AVENUE,
SUITE 2209
NEW YORK, NY 10152
212.451.9240
GET DIRECTIONS -
CHICAGO
400 N. MICHIGAN AVE,
SUITE S1700
CHICAGO, IL 60611
312.212.6843
GET DIRECTIONS -
HOUSTON
5151 SAN FELIPE ST,
SUITE 1480
HOUSTON, TX 77056
713.832.3670
GET DIRECTIONS