CLIENT LOGIN
-
-
CIO INSIGHTS
-
BACK TO CIO INSIGHTS
BACK TO ARTICLES & INSIGHTS HOME
-
-
-
-
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
DOLLAR
Published: 02-06-2015My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge impact currencies have had on investors in the past year.
Since January 2014, US equities are up 13%. But so are European equities, and Japanese stocks are close behind (+10%). However, these numbers are in local currencies, and the euro is off 20% and the yen off 12% against the dollar this past year, so, for a US investor, in dollar terms, European equities are not up 13%, but are actually down 7%, and Japanese stocks are not up 10% but down 2%. Conversely, European investors enjoyed a 37% gain in US stocks last year (13% + 20% + compounding) and Japanese investors saw a 27% increase. From a US perspective, the gap in returns between US and European stocks is as wide as we’ve seen in over 50 years (see Chart below).
With this sort of divergence in performance, it is reasonable to look for a reversal: US stocks to underperform non-US markets. Yet, for all the reasons I noted in my quarterly letter, the US dollar could appreciate further, especially in the context of the first graph, above, where it is still relatively low historically. Dollar strength is a headwind for non-dollar assets, which I suspect will continue to blow.
Whether the dollar continues to strengthen or turns around, US markets surge to new relative highs or mean-revert, I think caution is probably in order: take modest bets and watch them closely.
PRINT THIS ARTICLE-
Book Wrap 12-31-2018
Time for my semi-annual book perspective. I read a lot of books, but truthfully, most of them I move through pretty ...
READ MORE -
Distortion or Reflation? 05-21-2015
A month ago, Germany could borrow for 10 years at a rate of 0.06%. Lenders were also happy that day to earn 0.47% for ...
READ MORE -
US economic growth 10-14-2014
So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, ...
READ MORE
-
-
CONNECT WITH USSUBSCRIBE TO ANGELES' INSIGHTS
Get the latest investment information and stay on top of market trends.
-
CONTACT US
SANTA MONICA
429 SANTA MONICA BLVD
SUITE 650
SANTA MONICA, CA 90401
310.393.6300
GET DIRECTIONS -
NEW YORK
375 PARK AVENUE
SUITE 2209
NEW YORK, NY 10152
212.451.9240
GET DIRECTIONS
