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11 Sep, 2015
Mauled
Investors in Emerging Markets could be forgiven for feeling as if they've gone 15 rounds with Ronda Rousey (see below). Or, more like 3 years with thethe best pound-for-pound fighter today (she might ...
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4 Sep, 2015
Jobs
Markets have taken today's employment release as evidence of a weakeningjobs market. A mere 173,000 net new jobs were added in August, below the consensus figure of 217,000. But, coincidentally, ...
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28 Aug, 2015
Picking Up the Pace
Lost amidst the market turmoil this week were a number of reports of a strengthening US economy. Consumer confidence soared last month, as did new home sales. Durable goods orders surprised with a 2% ...
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25 Aug, 2015
Jolt
Two weeks ago (13 August, No Panic (Yet)) I noted that the renminbi devaluation was officially described as a modest alignment with market forces, which may have been true, but that it was strongly ...
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20 Aug, 2015
Land of Borat
I probably should not confess to enjoying Borat (full title:Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan), 86 minutes of low-brow, sophomoric gags lest I shatter ...
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13 Aug, 2015
No Panic (Yet)
Earlier this week, China devalued its currency 1.9% against the US dollar. On one level, this is not a big deal. China's currency has been appreciating considerably for many years (see Chart 1 for the ...
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5 Aug, 2015
Criminals in Diapers
Japan grew from the (literal) ashes of the Second World War to become the second largest economy in the world by creating products we all wanted. Some were revolutionary, like the Sony Walkman, some ...
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29 Jul, 2015
Dry Hole
Southern California just had the wettest July on record, the Angels were rained out of a home game for the first time in 20 years, and we're all getting excited that a strong El Niño is ...
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27 Jul, 2015
Hot Bidding
The housing recovery, from its worst downturn since at least the 1930s, has been steady, but much less robust than most had expected. There are many explanations offered, from mean banks who have ...
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24 Jul, 2015
Plunging
Commodity prices are in free fall. The Bloomberg Commodity Price Index (5-year chart below) is off about 30% in the last year. Gold is dropping toward $1,000/oz., and oil (WTI) is back below ...
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13 Jul, 2015
Wild, Wild East
The central planners in Beijing have gotten so much right for the past three decades, that they might be forgiven for believing in their own infallibility. But it's one thing to shuffle resources ...
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6 Jul, 2015
???
I'm not sure why the pundits were predicting the Greeks would volunteer to walk meekly to their certain ruin, but the vote yesterday apparently surprised these experts. European equities are down 1 %, ...
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1 Jul, 2015
2ND QUARTER 2015 - CLOSE HAUL
Sailing has been an inextricable companion of human development and civilization. Artifacts over 7,000 years old contain pictures of sail boats, more than 2,000 years before the domestication of the horse, making sailing our first non-bipedal...
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30 Jun, 2015
Puerto Pobre
An honest politician may be oxymoronic (or is just moronic?), or maybe it's the black swan that surprises us when seen. Either way, Alejandro Garcia Padilla, governor of the US Commonwealth of Puerto ...
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29 Jun, 2015
Drama/Drachma
Here we go again, as Ronald Reagan used to say. Asian equities off 2-3%, Europe down 3-4%, Treasuries rallying, gold up. What's going on?The latest act of this tragedy was the imposition of capital ...
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26 Jun, 2015
More on Rates...
A few days ago (Beginning's End) I suggested 2015 might turn out to be the worst year for bond investors in the past three decades. Here are some additional pictures (courtesy of Goldman Sachs) to ...
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23 Jun, 2015
Beginning's End
In November 1942, with the Battle for Egypt under way, Winston Churchill addressed his nation with these words:Now this is not the end. It is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the ...
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12 Jun, 2015
Party Like It's 1999?
Some observers point to the eye-popping valuations for companies with little revenue (WhatsApp, e.g., bought by Facebook for $19 billion) as indicative of an equity market that is partying like it's ...
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11 Jun, 2015
Angeles Wealth Commentary
A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In a secular bull market, the corrections are often rapid and scary, but generally make higher lows...
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8 Jun, 2015
June Gloom Will Fade
1024"June gloom" is what you get when a warming land mass meets a cooler ocean: a layer of marine fog that the sun burns off into afternoon haze. It is the weather pattern in Santa Monica for every ...
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29 May, 2015
Yasou!
Let me stipulate up-front: I love Greece. Everything about it: the food, the weather, the history, the music, the people. Everything.But I wouldn't lend them my money. Greece has a long (very long) ...
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26 May, 2015
Long Term
In much of life, certainty dissipates with time. Weather forecasts are pretty accurate over the next 24 hours, a little better than a coin flip over the next week, and worthless a month from now. The ...
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22 May, 2015
Don't Blame Nature
Commodity prices rise and fall; no great insight there. Which is why most of us, mostly, take the fluctuations in stride. We (I) may get a little annoyed when the price of gasoline is a few cents ...
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21 May, 2015
Distortion or Reflation?
A month ago, Germany could borrow for 10 years at a rate of 0.06%. Lenders were also happy that day to earn 0.47% for the next 30 years. That's $4,700 of annual interest for every $1 million. ...
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