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    • EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES

      EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES 12-15-2014

      Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the ...

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    • DEFLATION? NOT US

      DEFLATION? NOT US 12-09-2014

      The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is ...

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    • LABOR MARKET

      LABOR MARKET 12-05-2014

      Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on ...

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    • PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS)

      PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS) 12-03-2014

      Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of ...

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    • PETROPOLITICS

      PETROPOLITICS 12-02-2014

      For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and ...

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    • EM THOUGHTS...NOT THERE YET

      EM THOUGHTS...NOT THERE YET 11-25-2014

      Successful investing is frequently about balancing valuation with growth prospects. We would all love to invest in cheap assets with strong ...

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    • JOBS

      JOBS 11-24-2014

      There's no doubt that the headline unemployment rate (5.8%) does not tell the full picture of the job market. Specifically, there have been three ...

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    • PRESSURE BUILDING

      PRESSURE BUILDING 11-20-2014

      Yes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. It's a concern, a problem, a ...

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    • SPREADS

      SPREADS 11-18-2014

      An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the ...

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    • MONEY MATTERS

      MONEY MATTERS 11-17-2014

      When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge ...

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    • SELECTED FUN FACTS

      SELECTED FUN FACTS 11-14-2014

      Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest ...

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    • "SPECIAL"? 11-13-2014

      The following item caught my eye on Bloomberg:Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System is scheduled to discuss a staff report requested at a ...

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    • LOGISTICS

      LOGISTICS 11-11-2014

      Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ...

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    • HOW THE MIGHTY FALL

      HOW THE MIGHTY FALL 11-11-2014

      Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, ...

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    • HAPPY SINGLES DAY!

      HAPPY SINGLES DAY! 11-11-2014

      11 November is celebrated in the US as Veteran's Day and throughout Europe as Armistice Day, marking the armistice ending the First World War in 1918. ...

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    • US MANUFACTURING

      US MANUFACTURING 11-04-2014

      Wow. The good people at the Institute for Supply Management survey American manufacturers every month and ask, "how's business?" They then create a ...

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    • IT'S A BIG WORLD

      IT'S A BIG WORLD 11-03-2014

      With apologies to Walt Disney, the global economy is getting, well, more global, and, intuitively, companies' sensitivities to global macro factors ...

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    • QE IMPACT?

      QE IMPACT? 10-31-2014

      QE3 (the policy, not a new Cunard ship) was launched 2 years ago and ended this week. The expanded it balance sheet by $1.6 trillion, or ...

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    • DOUBLE LEVERAGE?

      DOUBLE LEVERAGE? 10-29-2014

      Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, India). Not so good news for the big ...

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    • BRASIL

      BRASIL 10-28-2014

      A hundred years ago, I studied international relations in school (the Sykes-Picot Treaty was a hotly-debated current topic among us). For the few of ...

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    • THE PRESENT IS THE FUTURE (AT LEAST IN BOND LAND)

      THE PRESENT IS THE FUTURE (AT LEAST IN BOND LAND) 10-27-2014

      In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting yield. That's because a ...

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    • I'M NOT DEAD!

      I'M NOT DEAD! 10-24-2014

      A great line from a great Monty Python movie, and another crisp cover from The Economist: ...

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    • KIDS!

      KIDS! 10-23-2014

      On a totally non-market subject, more young adults are living with their parents, and here's the graph to prove it (courtesy of Hugo Scott-Gall of ...

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    • EUROPE FALLING

      EUROPE FALLING 10-22-2014

      Yes, pessimism over Europe's prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good reasons.Below is another data point ...

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