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  NEGATIVE YIELDS 03-19-2015

  One of the (many) perplexing phenomena facing investors is the persistent (and falling) low yields on government bonds.Most of the time, we look to ...

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  ERIN GO BRAGH! 03-17-2015

  In honor of St. Patrick, I thought I'd share this (mostly) green chart with you, showing the DJIA over the past 115 years, delineated by bull and bear ...

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  REBALANCINGS 03-16-2015

  Apologies for slipping on the blogs, but I've been traveling around the continent, from Alaska to DC.One of the more common questions/comments we've ...

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  NOT DEFLATION 02-26-2015

  The Consumer Price Index dropped 0.7% in January, bringing the year-over-year change to negative 0.1%. With the exception of the 2008 financial ...

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  DIVERSIFY 02-19-2015

  Each year for clients we update a very colorful graphic ranking the annual performance of various asset classes. Each asset class has its own color, ...

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  PATIENCE 02-17-2015

  Interest rate cycles are long: lasting not years, but decades. Consequently, we don't have many data points for statistically significant conclusions ...

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  WHERE HAVE ALL THE BONDS GONE? 02-09-2015

  Apologies to Pete Seeger for stealing his song lyric, but I think bonds and flowers are sufficiently different that he wouldn't mind.The chart below ...

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  DOLLAR 02-06-2015

  My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge ...

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  JOBS, JOBS, JOBS 02-06-2015

  The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November ...

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  CONSENSUS 01-28-2015

  Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as ...

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  STATISTICS 01-20-2015

  Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or ...

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  SWISS CHEESE 01-15-2015

  Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, ...

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  MARKET COMMENTARY 01-13-2015

  A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In ...

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  WEIGHTY 01-08-2015

  Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it ...

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  SHIPPING 01-02-2015

  First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the ...

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  4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE 01-01-2015

  Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of ...

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  GDP 12-23-2014

  Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP ...

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  TOO MANY WORDS 12-22-2014

  Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to ...

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  ENERGY PANIC 12-16-2014

  Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol' West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in ...

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  EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES 12-15-2014

  Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the ...

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  DEFLATION? NOT US 12-09-2014

  The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is ...

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  LABOR MARKET 12-05-2014

  Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on ...

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  PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS) 12-03-2014

  Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of ...

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  PETROPOLITICS 12-02-2014

  For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and ...

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