CLIENT LOGIN
-
-
INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
-
BACK TO INVESTMENT INSIGHTS
BACK TO ARTICLES & INSIGHTS HOME
-
-
-
-
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years of experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, and investment consultant.
STILL IN NEUTRAL
Published: 04-07-2016The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that’s the message from the VIX (volatility index—see below). Bouncing around an elevated level of around 28 for much of January and February, the VIX fell 50% to 14 by the end of March.
At a high level, we have maintained a pretty neutral stance in our portfolios. I didn’t think the sell-off in the beginning of the year was the beginning of a new bear market, so we held our ground. The March rally brought global equities all the way back to flat for the year, but I don’t see cause to celebrate much. The global economy is sputtering along, and I haven’t seen any serious discussion, much less action, toward addressing the long-term declines in productivity and growth rates.
Valuations are fine, generally in-line with where they “should” be (see table below, courtesy of J.P. Morgan). I suppose oil and (US) homes look a bit cheap, and government bonds expensive, but take valuation measures as the blunt instruments they are. Equities, broadly, are close to fair value, in my opinion.
So, our models, at the high level, are in-line. There are some interesting, idiosyncratic ideas we are seeing around the world, but I don’t (yet) feel compelled to add risk broadly, or to bury gold in the backyard. Still in neutral.
-
Chasing the Red Baron 03-31-2017
You can't eat relative returns is an old aphorism. It sounds like it could come out of Poor Richard's Almanac ...
READ MORE -
Negative Yields 03-19-2015
One of the (many) perplexing phenomena facing investors is the persistent (and falling) low yields on government ...
READ MORE -
Feliz Cinco de Mayo! 05-05-2015
There will always be a debate about the relevance of history to current conditions. I am firmly in the pro-history camp, ...
READ MORE
-
-
-
INSTITUTIONAL
-
PRIVATE WEALTH
Get the latest investment information and stay on top of market trends.
-
-
CONTACT US
SANTA MONICA
INSTITUTIONAL & PRIVATE 429 SANTA MONICA BLVD
SUITE 650
SANTA MONICA, CA 90401
310.393.6300
GET DIRECTIONS -
NEW YORK
PRIVATE WEALTH 375 PARK AVENUE
SUITE 2607
NEW YORK, NY 10152
212.451.9290
GET DIRECTIONS