Latest Blog: Earthrise or Earthset: Tho... - 06/02/2020
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
I'M SWISSPublished: 10-13-2015
No question, this has been a challenging year. Virtually every financial asset class is struggling. Stocks are down, bonds are down, gold is down, oil is down. US is down, non-US is down. Large caps down, small caps down. Industrials, financials, health care: all down. High-grade bonds, low-grade bonds: down.
Japan’s economy has flat-lined, Europe rejoices if GDP growth is fractionally above zero, and Chinese passengers should assume the crash position before their economy hard-lands. And in the US, there are a handful of crazy people running for president, some even leading in the polls.
Most of the above statements are true, yet I’ve argued we should stick with our long-term strategy. I see each of these elements as part of a normal cycle of events. Sometimes markets get ahead of themselves, sometimes they panic when fearing they are behind events.
The economy, which still matters to asset prices, is growing right around 2.5% p.a., the average of the past 6-7 years. Equity valuations are pretty close to long-term averages (see table below). I just don’t believe the end is nigh, or that asset prices are grossly out of balance. Like Switzerland, I’m pretty neutral. Like the Swiss, that’s a little boring. Sorry (both for being boring and for offending my Swiss friends).
Under My Thumb 11-20-2015
As Mick Jagger sang (screeched?) 50 years ago. The song was about turning the tables on a domineering woman (The girl ...READ MORE
Give Us Your Poor 09-16-2016
A large percentage of energy expended at Angeles is in evaluating, analyzing and judging investment managers. It is a ...READ MORE
Negative Negative is Positive 08-22-2016
Housing is a small part of the larger economic picture, contributing only about 5% to GDP (although includingall the ...READ MORE
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