Latest Blog: Beach Reading - 04/29/2021
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
SEVEN LEAN YEARS? DONE IN SEVEN MINUTESPublished: 04-30-2015
In Genesis (41:27), Joseph interprets Pharaoh’s dream of 7 fat cows followed by 7 lean (and apparently, ugly) cows, as foretelling the coming feast and then famine, enabling Egypt to prepare for the coming 7 lean years by stockpiling reserves.
Yesterday, the 10-year German bund leaped 12 basis points (see Graph below), along with a surging euro following the weak US GDP report. Now, 12 basis points is a big move, but we’ve seen bond yields move by that magnitude before. What is different about this time is that there is no yield to begin with, so yesterday’s move in the bund wiped out 7 years (!) of income.
If investing at near-zero yields for 10 years is rational, it will prove to be the worst decade for investors since the bubonic plague swept across Europe in the mid-14th century (ok, I made that up; but it could be right). But I’ll bet that it is not actually a rational investment, and monetary policy is distorting all kinds of prices and investment decisions.PRINT THIS ARTICLE
DOUBLE LEVERAGE? 10-29-2014
Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, ...READ MORE
California Dreamin' 04-02-2015
Well, maybe not dreaming, but some thoughts.Below, my graph shows the unemployment rates for California and the US since ...READ MORE
Petropolitics-II (Implications) 12-03-2014
Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around ...READ MORE
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