Latest Blog: Earthrise or Earthset: Tho... - 06/02/2020
Investment Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 30 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
SEVEN LEAN YEARS? DONE IN SEVEN MINUTESPublished: 04-30-2015
In Genesis (41:27), Joseph interprets Pharaoh’s dream of 7 fat cows followed by 7 lean (and apparently, ugly) cows, as foretelling the coming feast and then famine, enabling Egypt to prepare for the coming 7 lean years by stockpiling reserves.
Yesterday, the 10-year German bund leaped 12 basis points (see Graph below), along with a surging euro following the weak US GDP report. Now, 12 basis points is a big move, but we’ve seen bond yields move by that magnitude before. What is different about this time is that there is no yield to begin with, so yesterday’s move in the bund wiped out 7 years (!) of income.
If investing at near-zero yields for 10 years is rational, it will prove to be the worst decade for investors since the bubonic plague swept across Europe in the mid-14th century (ok, I made that up; but it could be right). But I’ll bet that it is not actually a rational investment, and monetary policy is distorting all kinds of prices and investment decisions.
Europe Falling 10-22-2014
Yes, pessimism over Europe's prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good ...READ MORE
It's another beautiful day in Santa Monica: blue skies, a few high wisps of stratus clouds. But 1500 miles south of here ...READ MORE
Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a ...READ MORE
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