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Investment Insights
321 Results-
![Jobs, Jobs, Jobs]()
6 Feb, 2015Jobs, Jobs, Jobs
The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November and December. More than 140 million are currently ...
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![Consensus]()
28 Jan, 2015Consensus
Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as the US gained 13%, about as wide a performance ...
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![Statistics]()
20 Jan, 2015Statistics
Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or accelerated), profits are easily manipulated, inventory ...
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![Swiss Cheese]()
15 Jan, 2015Swiss Cheese
Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, the value of the currency spiked higher, threatening ...
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![Market Commentary]()
13 Jan, 2015Market Commentary
A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In a secular bull market, the corrections are often rapid and scary, but generally make higher lows...
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![Weighty]()
8 Jan, 2015Weighty
Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it probably is true, and (b) it most certainly should ...
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![Shipping]()
2 Jan, 2015Shipping
First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the distance, I could see a giant container ship which, ...
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![4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE]()
1 Jan, 20154TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE
Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of northern Europe and beyond. To the east they settled the vast European steppes of Poland and Ukraine...
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![GDP]()
23 Dec, 2014GDP
Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP growth in the third quarter was revised up to ...
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![Too Many Words]()
22 Dec, 2014Too Many Words
Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to Fed chairman Ben Bernanke was published in the Wall ...
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![Energy Panic]()
16 Dec, 2014Energy Panic
Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in recessions (which makes sense as demand falls), and theres a ...
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![Europe Sputters, US Cruises]()
15 Dec, 2014Europe Sputters, US Cruises
Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the unemployment rate by 1%. I think you see the ...
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![Deflation? Not US]()
9 Dec, 2014Deflation? Not US
The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is deflationary. Well, that's not quite true.Inflation ...
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![Labor Market]()
5 Dec, 2014Labor Market
Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on average over the past year).Labor force expanded ...
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![Petropolitics-II (Implications)]()
3 Dec, 2014Petropolitics-II (Implications)
Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of world GDP, between oil producers to oil consumers. So ...
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![Petropolitics]()
2 Dec, 2014Petropolitics
For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and South Sudan, Venezuela saw production tumble due ...
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![EM Thoughts...Not There Yet]()
25 Nov, 2014EM Thoughts...Not There Yet
Successful investing is frequently about balancing valuation with growth prospects. We would all love to invest in cheap assets with strong prospective growth, but most of the time, we're forced to ...
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![Jobs]()
24 Nov, 2014Jobs
There's no doubt that the headline unemployment rate (5.8%) does not tell the full picture of the job market. Specifically, there have been three areas of concern not reflected in the (low-ish) ...
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![Pressure Building]()
20 Nov, 2014Pressure Building
ÂYes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. Its a concern, a problem, a challenge, but not a crisis.It is hard to get ...
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![Spreads]()
18 Nov, 2014Spreads
An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the year. This, despite the rally in US equities and solid ...
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![Money Matters]()
17 Nov, 2014Money Matters
When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge in inflation). Didn't happen. With QE ended, many ...
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![Selected Fun Facts]()
14 Nov, 2014Selected Fun Facts
Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest margin since 1976.US large cap is beating US small cap ...
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13 Nov, 2014"Special"?
The following item caught my eye on Bloomberg:Los Angeles City Employees' Retirement System is scheduled to discuss a staff report requested at a prior meeting on the pension's specialized private ...
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![Logistics]()
11 Nov, 2014Logistics
Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ended 10 days later only after a presidential ...
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