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    • HOUSING HAS LEGS

      HOUSING HAS LEGS 05-24-2016

      Surprisingly strong housing numbers out this morning: new single-family homes rose 16.6% in April to an annual pace of 616,000 (see chart below), well ...

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    • INSIDE THE TRIANGLE

      INSIDE THE TRIANGLE 05-23-2016

      Complexity makes investing so challenging. Unlike the pure sciences, there are no hard truths in investing, no discoverable axioms that determine ...

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    • 2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY

      2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY 05-17-2016

      To read more, download the full 16 page PDF: ...

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    • MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES

      MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES 05-10-2016

      Home Bias is the tendency for investors to overallocate to domestic investments regardless of the benefits of global diversification in terms of both ...

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    • 1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS

      1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS 05-04-2016

      Some of the most impressive accomplishments in human history were born of vanity, some rose from sheer curiosity, some were driven by commerce, others ...

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    • STILL IN NEUTRAL

      STILL IN NEUTRAL 04-07-2016

      The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that's the message from the VIX (volatility indexsee below). Bouncing around ...

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    • LABORING

      LABORING 03-24-2016

      In some respects, this is a golden age for labor. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9% from a high of 10% in October 2009. It's not quite as low ...

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    • IN A HOLE

      IN A HOLE 03-04-2016

      Two months ago, I offered some hope that drop we saw on the first day of 2016 was a good omen for the rest of the month and year (). I noted that, of ...

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    • 4TH QUARTER 2015 - BOUNDARIES

      4TH QUARTER 2015 - BOUNDARIES 02-03-2016

      Painting has been a human endeavor probably since we developed opposable thumbs. Traditionally, painting filled one of two purposes: either ...

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    • DIGGING OUT

      DIGGING OUT 01-25-2016

      The eastern United States was buried in snowstorm ...

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    • APRèS MOI LE DéLUGE

      APRèS MOI LE DéLUGE 01-05-2016

      In more ways than one.We greeted the new year with an actual deluge, at least here in California, as the long-promised El Niño swooped in with ...

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    • A YEAR-END THOUGHT

      A YEAR-END THOUGHT 12-31-2015

      This week, my college basketball team visited southern California, and I was lucky enough to spend some time with them over the past few days. I ...

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    • PATH TO PROGRESS

      PATH TO PROGRESS 12-08-2015

      Zimbabwe is a country of 14 million people. I've never been there, and I can't recall if I've ever met anyone from there, but I'm sure that the vast ...

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    • O PAIS DO FUTURO

      O PAIS DO FUTURO 11-30-2015

      Charles de Gaulle (photobelow)imperious, disdainful, utterly French (and venerated for it in France)noted 50 years ago that "Brazil was the country of ...

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    • UNDER MY THUMB

      UNDER MY THUMB 11-20-2015

      As Mick Jagger sang (screeched?) 50 years ago. The song was about turning the tables on a domineering woman (The girl who once had me down).A bit ...

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    • FAIRY TALES

      FAIRY TALES 11-19-2015

      The technology bubble of the late 1990s is a distant memory for most investors, and an ignorance for the rest. ...

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    • PATRICIA

      PATRICIA 10-23-2015

      It's another beautiful day in Santa Monica: blue skies, a few high wisps of stratus clouds. But 1500 miles south of here is the strongest hurricane ...

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    • I'M SWISS

      I'M SWISS 10-13-2015

      No question, this has been a challenging year. Virtually every financial asset class is struggling. Stocks are down, bonds are down, gold is down, oil ...

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    • URSA MINOR

      URSA MINOR 10-02-2015

      The bears are stirring. Not yet rampaging, but there's a lot of red ink across most markets.Today's jobs report was weak. No honey-coating it, it was ...

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    • 3RD QUARTER 2015 - GO WEST (AND EAST, NORTH AND SOUTH)

      3RD QUARTER 2015 - GO WEST (AND EAST, NORTH AND SOUTH) 10-01-2015

      Humans have inhabited the earth for what is a mere blink of the eye. The Universe was formed around 13 Â billion years ago, the Earth 7 billion ...

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    • YOGI

      YOGI 09-24-2015

      Baseball, more than any other sport, by far, has drawn its share of colorful characters. I don't know why that is, but it is.This week, we lost one of ...

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    • DROP (IN THE BUCKET)

      DROP (IN THE BUCKET) 09-15-2015

      Markets will fluctuate, as Pierpont Morgan caustically observed. And "fluctuate" means down as well as up. Perhaps I, too, am being caustically ...

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    • MAULED

      MAULED 09-11-2015

      Investors in Emerging Markets could be forgiven for feeling as if they've gone 15 rounds with Ronda Rousey (see below). Or, more like 3 years with ...

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    • JOBS

      JOBS 09-04-2015

      Markets have taken today's employment release as evidence of a weakeningjobs market. A mere 173,000 net new jobs were added in August, below the ...

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