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Insights from our CIO
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![Michael Rosen]()
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CIO Insights are written by Angeles' CIO Michael Rosen
Michael has more than 35 years experience as an institutional portfolio manager, investment strategist, trader and academic.
RSS: CIO Blog | All Media
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![Logistics]()
11 Nov, 2014Logistics
Not enough attention is being paid to the work slowdown/stoppage going on at West Coast ports.The last time there was a disruption was in 2002, and it ended 10 days later only after a presidential ...
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![How The Mighty Fall]()
11 Nov, 2014How The Mighty Fall
Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, and I confess, following the collapse, I thought my ...
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![Happy Singles Day!]()
11 Nov, 2014Happy Singles Day!
11 November is celebrated in the US as Veteran's Day and throughout Europe as Armistice Day, marking the armistice ending the First World War in 1918. Government agencies and banks are closed for the ...
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![US Manufacturing]()
4 Nov, 2014US Manufacturing
Wow. The good people at the Institute for Supply Management survey American manufacturers every month and ask, "how's business?" They then create a diffusion index based on those responses: a scale ...
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![It's a Big World]()
3 Nov, 2014It's a Big World
With apologies to Walt Disney, the global economy is getting, well, more global, and, intuitively, companies' sensitivities to global macro factors increase in proportion to their global ...
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![QE Impact?]()
31 Oct, 2014QE Impact?
QE3 (the policy, not a new Cunard ship) was launched 2 years ago and ended this week. The expanded it balance sheet by $1.6 trillion, or 62%.Economists (and other, smarter people) will debate the ...
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![DOUBLE LEVERAGE?]()
29 Oct, 2014DOUBLE LEVERAGE?
Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, India). Not so good news for the big producers (Saudi, Russia, Venezuela).Oil ...
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![BRASIL]()
28 Oct, 2014BRASIL
A hundred years ago, I studied international relations in school (the Sykes-Picot Treaty was a hotly-debated current topic among us). For the few of us focused on the Third World (now given the more ...
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![The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)]()
27 Oct, 2014The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)
In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting yield. Thats because a bonds total return is a function of two variables: yield ...
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![Im Not Dead!]()
24 Oct, 2014Im Not Dead!
A great line from a great Monty Python movie, and another crisp cover from The Economist: ...
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![Kids!]()
23 Oct, 2014Kids!
On a totally non-market subject, more young adults are living with their parents, and heres the graph to prove it (courtesy of Hugo Scott-Gall of Goldman Sachs). Top line is US, bottom line is UK. I ...
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![Europe Falling]()
22 Oct, 2014Europe Falling
Yes, pessimism over Europes prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good reasons.Below is another data point on how the markets are reflecting the divergence in ...
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![Reversal]()
21 Oct, 2014Reversal
Im interpreting the spike down last week and the strong rebound in the past few days as bullish. See the chart below from Fridays close (courtesy of our friends at Merrill).We have held our positions ...
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![Shades of 2007?]()
17 Oct, 2014Shades of 2007?
Nice graphic in today's FT showing the spike in vol and sell-off in risk (Greek bond yields jumped from 5.5% to 9% in the past few days).I still think this is mostly noise, a normal, and overdue, ...
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![Old Age]()
16 Oct, 2014Old Age
Its been 3 years since US equities have corrected more than 10%. But theres no law about how long rallies can last without a correction.In any event, as diversified, well-positioned investors (as, of ...
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![Consider]()
16 Oct, 2014Consider
Consider:Volatility spiked to its highest level in over 2 years.Global equities are in negative territory this year, led by Europes 10% decline.US 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 30 basis ...
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![Knowns and Unknowns]()
16 Oct, 2014Knowns and Unknowns
Until last month, 2014 was a year of investor complacency. Recent market volatility has shaken off the prevailing calm with a healthy re-examination of things that can go wrong for the economy. Forrninvestors, a long-term perspective is critical.
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![MLPs]()
15 Oct, 2014MLPs
Some historical data from Credit Suisse below: MLPs are off 14% this month, pretty bad. Subsequent performance (no guarantees) looks pretty strong though. ...
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![Panic!]()
15 Oct, 2014Panic!
Like Scary Nights at Universal Studios (where my daughter went this weekend), it really is scary out there. I Walked into the office looking at a 300-point drop in the Dow and a +10% jump in ...
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![US economic growth]()
14 Oct, 2014US economic growth
So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, world), as seen in these charts (thanks to Goldman Sachs).But will we converge, and if ...
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![3RD QUARTER 2014 - PLAGUE]()
1 Oct, 20143RD QUARTER 2014 - PLAGUE
Twenty million people died in the four brutal years of the Great War. Thus, the armistice of 11 November 1918 was greeted with the profound joy borne of sheer exhaustion. At 11am on that day, bells tolled across nearly every country in the four...
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![2ND QUARTER 2014 - DIG]()
1 Jul, 20142ND QUARTER 2014 - DIG
Whiskey has been an indelible part of Scotland's identity for centuries. Historically, consumption was tolerated by the Church of Scotland, but only in moderation and in accordance with Scripture. Whiskey's precise origins in Scotland are unknown...
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![1ST QUARTER 2014 - TRUMP]()
1 Apr, 20141ST QUARTER 2014 - TRUMP
Sports have been integral in societies since at least the ancient Greeks, and probably before. Today, through the magic of the internet (and ESPN), more people can watch more sporting events around the globe than at any time in history.
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![4TH QUARTER 2013 - WEED]()
1 Jan, 20144TH QUARTER 2013 - WEED
Gardening goes back a long time in human history. Eden, after all, was a garden. The Hanging Gardens of Babylon, thought to exist about 2,600 years ago, were one of the seven Wonders of the Ancient World.3 There are depictions of gardens a thousand..
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