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![How The Mighty Fall]()
11 Nov, 2014How The Mighty Fall
Between March 2000 and October 2002, the NASDAQ Index fell 75%, from over 5,000 to under 1,300. Of course, valuations were beyond silly at the peak, and I confess, following the collapse, I thought my ...
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![Happy Singles Day!]()
11 Nov, 2014Happy Singles Day!
11 November is celebrated in the US as Veteran's Day and throughout Europe as Armistice Day, marking the armistice ending the First World War in 1918. Government agencies and banks are closed for the ...
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![US Manufacturing]()
4 Nov, 2014US Manufacturing
Wow. The good people at the Institute for Supply Management survey American manufacturers every month and ask, "how's business?" They then create a diffusion index based on those responses: a scale ...
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![PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013]()
4 Nov, 2014PIMCO PAID BILLIONAIRE GROSS $290 MILLION BONUS IN 2013
"In the mutual fund world it's no doubt on the very high side," said Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investment Advisors. "This is a company with $2 trillion - that's an awful lot of money & that's an awful lot of money in fees".
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![It's a Big World]()
3 Nov, 2014It's a Big World
With apologies to Walt Disney, the global economy is getting, well, more global, and, intuitively, companies' sensitivities to global macro factors increase in proportion to their global ...
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![QE Impact?]()
31 Oct, 2014QE Impact?
QE3 (the policy, not a new Cunard ship) was launched 2 years ago and ended this week. The expanded it balance sheet by $1.6 trillion, or 62%.Economists (and other, smarter people) will debate the ...
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![DOUBLE LEVERAGE?]()
29 Oct, 2014DOUBLE LEVERAGE?
Oil prices are down about $30 from their highs; great news for consumers and the big oil importers (China, Korea, India). Not so good news for the big producers (Saudi, Russia, Venezuela).Oil ...
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![BRASIL]()
28 Oct, 2014BRASIL
A hundred years ago, I studied international relations in school (the Sykes-Picot Treaty was a hotly-debated current topic among us). For the few of us focused on the Third World (now given the more ...
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![The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)]()
27 Oct, 2014The Present is the Future (at least in bond land)
In our long-term assumptions, we generally assume that the total return in fixed income is pretty close to its starting yield. Thats because a bonds total return is a function of two variables: yield ...
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![BATTLE FOR SHARE OF PIMCO SPOILS IS GETTING HOTTER]()
27 Oct, 2014BATTLE FOR SHARE OF PIMCO SPOILS IS GETTING HOTTER
Mr. Rosen said the new multiperson investment team that replaced Mr. Gross on the fund might improve its recent performance, but that might not be enough to retain investors. "It may be better, but it is not what investors signed up for..."
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![Im Not Dead!]()
24 Oct, 2014Im Not Dead!
A great line from a great Monty Python movie, and another crisp cover from The Economist: ...
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![Kids!]()
23 Oct, 2014Kids!
On a totally non-market subject, more young adults are living with their parents, and heres the graph to prove it (courtesy of Hugo Scott-Gall of Goldman Sachs). Top line is US, bottom line is UK. I ...
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![Europe Falling]()
22 Oct, 2014Europe Falling
Yes, pessimism over Europes prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good reasons.Below is another data point on how the markets are reflecting the divergence in ...
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![Reversal]()
21 Oct, 2014Reversal
Im interpreting the spike down last week and the strong rebound in the past few days as bullish. See the chart below from Fridays close (courtesy of our friends at Merrill).We have held our positions ...
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![Shades of 2007?]()
17 Oct, 2014Shades of 2007?
Nice graphic in today's FT showing the spike in vol and sell-off in risk (Greek bond yields jumped from 5.5% to 9% in the past few days).I still think this is mostly noise, a normal, and overdue, ...
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![Old Age]()
16 Oct, 2014Old Age
Its been 3 years since US equities have corrected more than 10%. But theres no law about how long rallies can last without a correction.In any event, as diversified, well-positioned investors (as, of ...
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![Consider]()
16 Oct, 2014Consider
Consider:Volatility spiked to its highest level in over 2 years.Global equities are in negative territory this year, led by Europes 10% decline.US 10-year Treasury yields fell more than 30 basis ...
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![Knowns and Unknowns]()
16 Oct, 2014Knowns and Unknowns
Until last month, 2014 was a year of investor complacency. Recent market volatility has shaken off the prevailing calm with a healthy re-examination of things that can go wrong for the economy. Forrninvestors, a long-term perspective is critical.
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![MLPs]()
15 Oct, 2014MLPs
Some historical data from Credit Suisse below: MLPs are off 14% this month, pretty bad. Subsequent performance (no guarantees) looks pretty strong though. ...
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![Panic!]()
15 Oct, 2014Panic!
Like Scary Nights at Universal Studios (where my daughter went this weekend), it really is scary out there. I Walked into the office looking at a 300-point drop in the Dow and a +10% jump in ...
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![US economic growth]()
14 Oct, 2014US economic growth
So, US economic growth is outpacing the rest of the developed world (and much of the non-developed, um, emerging, world), as seen in these charts (thanks to Goldman Sachs).But will we converge, and if ...
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![JANUS ASSET DRAIN EXPECTED TO END]()
13 Oct, 2014JANUS ASSET DRAIN EXPECTED TO END
Michael Rosen said he would want to understand Mr. Gross' investment process and determine the support team he will have in building his new Janus fund. But Mr. Rosen said if initial due diligence is positive and Mr. Gross develops strong...
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![PIMCO'S OUTFLOW HEADACHES ONLY JUST BEGINNING]()
7 Oct, 2014PIMCO'S OUTFLOW HEADACHES ONLY JUST BEGINNING
Investors who wait until year-end to move could find an added squeeze as the holiday season dries up liquidity, said Michael Rosen, the chief investment officer of Angeles Investment Advisors. "If youÃre going to shift a portfolio, it gets tougher...
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![$23 Billion Pulled From Pimco Fund]()
1 Oct, 2014$23 Billion Pulled From Pimco Fund
"The performance of the other managers has been truly exceptional," said Foster, who manages $47 billion in funds from institutional investors. "We have great confidence that they will do just fine. We are still committed to the organization..."
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