Labor Market

Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:

• 321,000 net new jobs in November.
• 10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on average over the past year).
• Labor force expanded 119,000, and the labor participation rate held steady at 62.8%, its average of the past 8 months, so perhaps it is leveling off.
• Median number of weeks of unemployment fell to a recovery-low of 12.8.
• Quitters rose to 9.1% of those unemployed, signaling rising confidence in being able to find another job (this is one of Janet Yellen’s favorite stats).
• Average hourly wages rose 0.4% and total hours worked rose 0.6%, so cash earnings were up 1% in November, the most for any month since 2006.

In stark contrast to the rest of the world, the US economy is not only strong, but may be getting stronger! Good for USD-based assets, and we expect the Fed to begin raising rates in 2Q next year.

• 22 Oct, 2014

  Europe Falling

  Yes, pessimism over Europes prospects is high, and valuations in Europe are relatively low. But both for good ...

• 4 Mar, 2016

  In A Hole

  Two months ago, I offered some hope that drop we saw on the first day of 2016 was a good omen for the rest of the month ...

• 1 May, 2015

  Wages

  They're going up. Total salaries and benefits moved up 4.4% in 2014, rising to 53.6% of GDP, still below historic ...