Labor Market

Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:

• 321,000 net new jobs in November.
• 10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on average over the past year).
• Labor force expanded 119,000, and the labor participation rate held steady at 62.8%, its average of the past 8 months, so perhaps it is leveling off.
• Median number of weeks of unemployment fell to a recovery-low of 12.8.
• Quitters rose to 9.1% of those unemployed, signaling rising confidence in being able to find another job (this is one of Janet Yellen’s favorite stats).
• Average hourly wages rose 0.4% and total hours worked rose 0.6%, so cash earnings were up 1% in November, the most for any month since 2006.

In stark contrast to the rest of the world, the US economy is not only strong, but may be getting stronger! Good for USD-based assets, and we expect the Fed to begin raising rates in 2Q next year.

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