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    • WHERE HAVE ALL THE BONDS GONE?

      WHERE HAVE ALL THE BONDS GONE? 02-09-2015

      Apologies to Pete Seeger for stealing his song lyric, but I think bonds and flowers are sufficiently different that he wouldn't mind.The chart below ...

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    • DOLLAR

      DOLLAR 02-06-2015

      My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge ...

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    • JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

      JOBS, JOBS, JOBS 02-06-2015

      The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November ...

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    • CONSENSUS

      CONSENSUS 01-28-2015

      Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as ...

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    • STATISTICS

      STATISTICS 01-20-2015

      Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or ...

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    • SWISS CHEESE

      SWISS CHEESE 01-15-2015

      Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, ...

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    • MARKET COMMENTARY

      MARKET COMMENTARY 01-13-2015

      A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In ...

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    • WEIGHTY

      WEIGHTY 01-08-2015

      Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it ...

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    • SHIPPING

      SHIPPING 01-02-2015

      First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the ...

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    • 4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE

      4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE 01-01-2015

      Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of ...

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    • GDP

      GDP 12-23-2014

      Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP ...

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    • TOO MANY WORDS

      TOO MANY WORDS 12-22-2014

      Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to ...

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    • ENERGY PANIC

      ENERGY PANIC 12-16-2014

      Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol' West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in ...

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    • EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES

      EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES 12-15-2014

      Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the ...

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    • DEFLATION? NOT US

      DEFLATION? NOT US 12-09-2014

      The dramatic (40%!) drop in oil prices has caused some hysteria in the media about the rising risks of deflation. After all, lower energy prices is ...

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    • LABOR MARKET

      LABOR MARKET 12-05-2014

      Oh, this was a strong report this morning, on every level:321,000 net new jobs in November.10 consecutive months of +200,000 payroll gains (228,000 on ...

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    • PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS)

      PETROPOLITICS-II (IMPLICATIONS) 12-03-2014

      Declining oil prices provide a net benefit to the global economy. A rule of thumb is every $10/barrel transfers around $330 billion, about 0.4% of ...

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    • PETROPOLITICS

      PETROPOLITICS 12-02-2014

      For the past few years, oil has held steady at around $100/barrel, as supply and demand were largely held in check. Supply was disrupted in Libya and ...

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    • EM THOUGHTS...NOT THERE YET

      EM THOUGHTS...NOT THERE YET 11-25-2014

      Successful investing is frequently about balancing valuation with growth prospects. We would all love to invest in cheap assets with strong ...

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    • JOBS

      JOBS 11-24-2014

      There's no doubt that the headline unemployment rate (5.8%) does not tell the full picture of the job market. Specifically, there have been three ...

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    • PRESSURE BUILDING

      PRESSURE BUILDING 11-20-2014

      Yes, we all know the European economy is not growing: stagnant, sclerotic, etc. But this fact is not a crisis. It's a concern, a problem, a ...

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    • SPREADS

      SPREADS 11-18-2014

      An interesting graphic from Ken Leech of Western Asset showing that spreads in Bondland this year are pretty much unchanged from the start of the ...

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    • MONEY MATTERS

      MONEY MATTERS 11-17-2014

      When the Fed embarked on Quantitative Easing (QE), many prominent economists warned this would lead to hyperinflation (or, at least, an wanted surge ...

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    • SELECTED FUN FACTS

      SELECTED FUN FACTS 11-14-2014

      Some fun facts about this year (courtesy Michael Hartnett of Merrill Lynch):US equities (+14%) are ahead of European equities (-6%) by the widest ...

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