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    • LOVE

      LOVE 02-14-2017

      It's probably no surprise to you that I see offering world-class investment advice as a valuable service for the long-term ...

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    • 4TH QUARTER 2016 - FINLAND STATION

      4TH QUARTER 2016 - FINLAND STATION 01-25-2017

      After three years of war, and really, three centuries of Romanov repression, the Russian people had reached their breaking point. The Tsars army ...

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    • SHOCK, PART 4 (DIVIDED WE ARE)

      SHOCK, PART 4 (DIVIDED WE ARE) 12-21-2016

      We began this series with a review of the likely economic policies and their implications of the new Trump administration, and discussed the long-term ...

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    • SHOCK, PART 3 (THE END OF PAX AMERICANA)

      SHOCK, PART 3 (THE END OF PAX AMERICANA) 12-13-2016

      We are all trying to make sense of the election of Donald J. Trump to the presidency, and a few weeks ago I outlined the possible economic agenda and ...

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    • SHOCK, PART 2 (THE ASSET ALLOCATOR'S DILEMMA)

      SHOCK, PART 2 (THE ASSET ALLOCATOR'S DILEMMA) 11-28-2016

      In Shock (Part 1) (), we looked at a possible Trump economic agenda and its consequences. A large increase in government spending, tax cuts ...

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    • SHOCK (PART 1)

      SHOCK (PART 1) 11-22-2016

      Shock, a sudden drop in blood flow, is a serious medical condition. Untreated, it can quickly be fatal. There are numerous types and causes of shock, ...

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    • 3RD QUARTER 2016 - CHANCELLORSVILLE

      3RD QUARTER 2016 - CHANCELLORSVILLE 11-04-2016

      Abraham Lincoln suffered from clinical depression his whole life, but as 1862 drew to a close, even the most cheerful were likely to be losing faith ...

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    • WHAT I LEARNED WHILE ATONING

      WHAT I LEARNED WHILE ATONING 10-17-2016

      Twenty-four hours without food or drink is supposed to help focus the mind on the task at hand: atoning for the sins of the past year in hopes ...

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    • JANET YELLEN IS YOUR FRIEND

      JANET YELLEN IS YOUR FRIEND 09-28-2016

      I have not met Janet Yellen, but she seems like a perfectly friendly person. Yet, for some reason, investors seem to panic whenever she hints that the ...

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    • GIVE US YOUR POOR

      GIVE US YOUR POOR 09-16-2016

      A large percentage of energy expended at Angeles is in evaluating, analyzing and judging investment managers. It is a core ...

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    • FALLING BEHIND

      FALLING BEHIND 08-25-2016

      It's good to be tall.Tall people tend to be more highly educated, earn more over their careers, are higher in the social pecking order, and live ...

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    • NEGATIVE NEGATIVE IS POSITIVE

      NEGATIVE NEGATIVE IS POSITIVE 08-22-2016

      Housing is a small part of the larger economic picture, contributing only about 5% to GDP (although includingall the ancillary and related services ...

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    • 2ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION

      2ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION 07-26-2016

      University of Chicago is known for its excellent academics, not so much for its athletic prowess. But that wasnt always the case. One hundred years ...

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    • RUPTURE

      RUPTURE 06-28-2016

      [nota bene: this is a long one; if you don't have time, just skip to the summary at the end. I promise, no hard feelings.]The political experts ...

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    • LA JUSTICE?

      LA JUSTICE? 06-07-2016

      I'm not French, and I'm not a lawyer. So I am certainly not a French lawyer. These facts may be obvious, but I state them as a possible explanation ...

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    • FLOATING OIL

      FLOATING OIL 05-24-2016

      Oil has had a nice recovery this year (see graph for Brent, YTD), up about 18% to over $48/barrel today. Of course, this is still well below the ...

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    • HOUSING HAS LEGS

      HOUSING HAS LEGS 05-24-2016

      Surprisingly strong housing numbers out this morning: new single-family homes rose 16.6% in April to an annual pace of 616,000 (see chart below), well ...

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    • INSIDE THE TRIANGLE

      INSIDE THE TRIANGLE 05-23-2016

      Complexity makes investing so challenging. Unlike the pure sciences, there are no hard truths in investing, no discoverable axioms that determine ...

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    • 2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY

      2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY 05-17-2016

      To read more, download the full 16 page PDF: ...

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    • MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES

      MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES 05-10-2016

      Home Bias is the tendency for investors to overallocate to domestic investments regardless of the benefits of global diversification in terms of both ...

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    • 1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS

      1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS 05-04-2016

      Some of the most impressive accomplishments in human history were born of vanity, some rose from sheer curiosity, some were driven by commerce, others ...

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    • STILL IN NEUTRAL

      STILL IN NEUTRAL 04-07-2016

      The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that's the message from the VIX (volatility indexsee below). Bouncing around ...

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    • LABORING

      LABORING 03-24-2016

      In some respects, this is a golden age for labor. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9% from a high of 10% in October 2009. It's not quite as low ...

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    • IN A HOLE

      IN A HOLE 03-04-2016

      Two months ago, I offered some hope that drop we saw on the first day of 2016 was a good omen for the rest of the month and year (). I noted that, of ...

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