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    • FALLING BEHIND

      FALLING BEHIND 08-25-2016

      It's good to be tall.Tall people tend to be more highly educated, earn more over their careers, are higher in the social pecking order, and live ...

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    • NEGATIVE NEGATIVE IS POSITIVE

      NEGATIVE NEGATIVE IS POSITIVE 08-22-2016

      Housing is a small part of the larger economic picture, contributing only about 5% to GDP (although includingall the ancillary and related services ...

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    • 2ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION

      2ND QUARTER 2016 - FISSION 07-26-2016

      University of Chicago is known for its excellent academics, not so much for its athletic prowess. But that wasnt always the case. One hundred years ...

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    • RUPTURE

      RUPTURE 06-28-2016

      [nota bene: this is a long one; if you don't have time, just skip to the summary at the end. I promise, no hard feelings.]The political experts ...

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    • LA JUSTICE?

      LA JUSTICE? 06-07-2016

      I'm not French, and I'm not a lawyer. So I am certainly not a French lawyer. These facts may be obvious, but I state them as a possible explanation ...

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    • FLOATING OIL

      FLOATING OIL 05-24-2016

      Oil has had a nice recovery this year (see graph for Brent, YTD), up about 18% to over $48/barrel today. Of course, this is still well below the ...

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    • HOUSING HAS LEGS

      HOUSING HAS LEGS 05-24-2016

      Surprisingly strong housing numbers out this morning: new single-family homes rose 16.6% in April to an annual pace of 616,000 (see chart below), well ...

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    • INSIDE THE TRIANGLE

      INSIDE THE TRIANGLE 05-23-2016

      Complexity makes investing so challenging. Unlike the pure sciences, there are no hard truths in investing, no discoverable axioms that determine ...

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    • 2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY

      2016 - 1ST QUARTER COMMENTARY 05-17-2016

      To read more, download the full 16 page PDF: ...

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    • MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES

      MANAGING HOME BIAS: DEFENDING THE VALUE OF GLOBAL EQUITIES 05-10-2016

      Home Bias is the tendency for investors to overallocate to domestic investments regardless of the benefits of global diversification in terms of both ...

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    • 1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS

      1ST QUARTER 2016 - FOUNDATIONS 05-04-2016

      Some of the most impressive accomplishments in human history were born of vanity, some rose from sheer curiosity, some were driven by commerce, others ...

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    • STILL IN NEUTRAL

      STILL IN NEUTRAL 04-07-2016

      The first quarter began with a bang and ended with a whimper. At least, that's the message from the VIX (volatility indexsee below). Bouncing around ...

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    • LABORING

      LABORING 03-24-2016

      In some respects, this is a golden age for labor. The unemployment rate has dropped to 4.9% from a high of 10% in October 2009. It's not quite as low ...

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    • IN A HOLE

      IN A HOLE 03-04-2016

      Two months ago, I offered some hope that drop we saw on the first day of 2016 was a good omen for the rest of the month and year (). I noted that, of ...

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    • 4TH QUARTER 2015 - BOUNDARIES

      4TH QUARTER 2015 - BOUNDARIES 02-03-2016

      Painting has been a human endeavor probably since we developed opposable thumbs. Traditionally, painting filled one of two purposes: either ...

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    • DIGGING OUT

      DIGGING OUT 01-25-2016

      The eastern United States was buried in snowstorm ...

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    • APRèS MOI LE DéLUGE

      APRèS MOI LE DéLUGE 01-05-2016

      In more ways than one.We greeted the new year with an actual deluge, at least here in California, as the long-promised El Niño swooped in with ...

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    • A YEAR-END THOUGHT

      A YEAR-END THOUGHT 12-31-2015

      This week, my college basketball team visited southern California, and I was lucky enough to spend some time with them over the past few days. I ...

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    • PATH TO PROGRESS

      PATH TO PROGRESS 12-08-2015

      Zimbabwe is a country of 14 million people. I've never been there, and I can't recall if I've ever met anyone from there, but I'm sure that the vast ...

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    • O PAIS DO FUTURO

      O PAIS DO FUTURO 11-30-2015

      Charles de Gaulle (photobelow)imperious, disdainful, utterly French (and venerated for it in France)noted 50 years ago that "Brazil was the country of ...

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    • UNDER MY THUMB

      UNDER MY THUMB 11-20-2015

      As Mick Jagger sang (screeched?) 50 years ago. The song was about turning the tables on a domineering woman (The girl who once had me down).A bit ...

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    • FAIRY TALES

      FAIRY TALES 11-19-2015

      The technology bubble of the late 1990s is a distant memory for most investors, and an ignorance for the rest. ...

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    • PATRICIA

      PATRICIA 10-23-2015

      It's another beautiful day in Santa Monica: blue skies, a few high wisps of stratus clouds. But 1500 miles south of here is the strongest hurricane ...

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    • I'M SWISS

      I'M SWISS 10-13-2015

      No question, this has been a challenging year. Virtually every financial asset class is struggling. Stocks are down, bonds are down, gold is down, oil ...

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