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    • PATIENCE

      PATIENCE 02-17-2015

      Interest rate cycles are long: lasting not years, but decades. Consequently, we don't have many data points for statistically significant conclusions ...

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    • WHERE HAVE ALL THE BONDS GONE?

      WHERE HAVE ALL THE BONDS GONE? 02-09-2015

      Apologies to Pete Seeger for stealing his song lyric, but I think bonds and flowers are sufficiently different that he wouldn't mind.The chart below ...

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    • TED ELIOPOULOS: CALPERS' $300-BILLION MAN

      TED ELIOPOULOS: CALPERS' $300-BILLION MAN 02-08-2015

      "It's perfectly possible to be a very effective leader even if you don't have all the experience in the weeds," said Michael Rosen, a principal at ...

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    • DOLLAR

      DOLLAR 02-06-2015

      My quarterly letter talks about the strength of the US dollar and why it should continue to rise (see Chart below), but I wanted to note here the huge ...

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    • JOBS, JOBS, JOBS

      JOBS, JOBS, JOBS 02-06-2015

      The US economy is stronger than we think: 257,000 net new jobs in January, but another 404,000 jobs were "found" (due to a recalculation) in November ...

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    • PIMCO FUND HAD $11.6 BILLION OF WITHDRAWALS IN JANUARY

      PIMCO FUND HAD $11.6 BILLION OF WITHDRAWALS IN JANUARY 02-03-2015

      At this point, most people who've decided to exit have exited," Michael Rosen. "I think that's probably right unless performance starts deteriorating ...

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    • CONSENSUS

      CONSENSUS 01-28-2015

      Europe is a mess, everyone agrees: poor demographics, sclerotic and oppressive regulation, political dysfunction. European stocks lost 6% last year as ...

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    • FOR VANGUARD, THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES

      FOR VANGUARD, THESE ARE THE BEST OF TIMES 01-26-2015

      Others agree. "The trend toward passive investing is something (Vanguard founder) John Bogle really believed in," said Michael Rosen, a principal of ...

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    • VANGUARD'S FUNDS REACH NEW HEIGHTS

      VANGUARD'S FUNDS REACH NEW HEIGHTS 01-26-2015

      Although Mr. Rosen said he still believes in active management " "it just requires the right mix of resources, experience, organization and ...

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    • STATISTICS

      STATISTICS 01-20-2015

      Mark Twain wrote in his autobiography that there are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies and statistics. How true.Revenue can be deferred (or ...

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    • SWISS CHEESE

      SWISS CHEESE 01-15-2015

      Back in 2011, as talk of the Eurozone disintegrating was at high pitch, investors fled to the perceived safety of the Swiss franc (CHF). Naturally, ...

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    • WHY HIGH-YIELD DEBT SELLOFF ISN'T 2007 ALL OVER AGAIN. OR IS IT?

      WHY HIGH-YIELD DEBT SELLOFF ISN'T 2007 ALL OVER AGAIN. OR IS IT? 01-15-2015

      Just as many underestimated the effect defaulting subprime mortgages would have on financial markets in 2008, investors pulling money from high-yield ...

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    • MARKET COMMENTARY

      MARKET COMMENTARY 01-13-2015

      A Secular Bull Market is generally defined as a long-term bullish trend consisting of larger bull markets and smaller bear markets or corrections. In ...

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    • IN VANGUARD'S SHADOW, SMALL FIRM SCORES TWEAKING INDEXES

      IN VANGUARD'S SHADOW, SMALL FIRM SCORES TWEAKING INDEXES 01-13-2015

      "Educated advisers are more likely to prevent their clients from making radical changes when markets drop," said Rosen. "The fact that those assets ...

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    • DODGE & COX GROWS ON PERFORMANCE, PIMCO FLOW

      DODGE & COX GROWS ON PERFORMANCE, PIMCO FLOW 01-12-2015

      While performance at both funds is strong, it's clear the Dodge & Cox bond strategy benefited from outflows at PIMCO, said investment consultant ...

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    • WEIGHTY

      WEIGHTY 01-08-2015

      Among new year resolutions, losing weight tops the list for the majority of Americans. Actually, I made up that statistic, but in my defense, (a) it ...

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    • PIMCO NAMES BERNANKE, BROWN, TRICHET TO GLOBAL ADVISORY BOARD

      PIMCO NAMES BERNANKE, BROWN, TRICHET TO GLOBAL ADVISORY BOARD 01-07-2015

      "It's possible to imagine that there's some insight these individuals can provide,"" Rosen, whose Santa Monica, California-based firm advises on more ...

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    • PIMCO TOTAL RETURN SUFFERS WORST YEAR FOR REDEMPTIONS, WITH GROSS, EL-ERIAN DEPA

      PIMCO TOTAL RETURN SUFFERS WORST YEAR FOR REDEMPTIONS, WITH GROSS, EL-ERIAN DEPA 01-03-2015

      "You could still see some more outflows and then it probably stabilizes, unless performance really deteriorates," Michael Rosen, chief investment ...

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    • SHIPPING

      SHIPPING 01-02-2015

      First, happy new year to all!I walked into the office this morning to a crystal clear view of the Pacific. What a beautiful start to the year!In the ...

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    • 4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE

      4TH QUARTER 2014 - CANUTE 01-01-2015

      Beginning in the late 8th century, an intrepid band of explorers set out from their harsh, frozen lands, first to plunder, then to conquer most of ...

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    • GDP

      GDP 12-23-2014

      Normally, I wouldn't comment on any single economic release, but today's GDP revision adds to the mounting evidence of a strengthening US economy. GDP ...

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    • TOO MANY WORDS

      TOO MANY WORDS 12-22-2014

      Among monetary economists, there is a raging debate over the merits of the Fed's burgeoning balance sheet. Back in November 2010, an open letter to ...

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    • ENERGY PANIC

      ENERGY PANIC 12-16-2014

      Take a look at the price of a barrel of good ol' West Texas Intermediate (see graph below). Two things jump out at me: big declines occur in ...

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    • EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES

      EUROPE SPUTTERS, US CRUISES 12-15-2014

      Europe's unemployment rate is 11.5%. Europe is currently growing at less than 1%. A rule of thumb is that it takes excess growth of 2-2.5% to drop the ...

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